With many people wondering if they will know who the new President of the United States is by the time they go to bed, the issue of whether the 2012 elections will be Romney or Obama weighs heavily on the minds of voters. The reality, though, is that it could be days or even weeks before the winner is officially announced. This does not mean, though, that the public will not have a very good idea of who the winner is before the official announcement. After the polls close, experts and analysts will begin pouring over extant data and will probably make a call fairly quick. These “early” calls have a tendency to be correct.
For example, if a candidate starts to suddenly campaign poorly in a particular state, then analysts can start making predictions about how the voter turnout out will be for that candidate, whether it be Romney or Obama. There are a few other things people at home can look out for as they try and discern who the winner will be.
Virginia is a big state for Romney. If he does not win Virginia then he is in big trouble in terms of winning the election. The bigger state to watch for the 2012 Election, though, is Ohio. No Republican has ever won the election without taking Ohio, and as of yesterday Obama was leading in Ohio by 3 points, which is a bigger lead than what he had against John McCain. Romney might be able to turn things around with Pennsylvania if he loses Ohio, but that would be a long shot.
Romney’s last bastion of hope against Obama lies in Florida. If Romney does not take Florida, then it is highly unlikely that he will get the election. In fact, some argue that without Florida it is impossible for the republican to win the 2012 Election.
Source: Los Angeles Times